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NFL Betting Strategy: How To Bet on Football Games And Win. NFL betting can be described in many ways. It’s a hobby, a passion, a profit opportunity, or just plain. Whether you’re looking for data trends and analysis on the future of the industry, the best sports betting sites in the US, or you’re looking for an expert betting pick for an upcoming NFL game—the hand-picked team of experts at TheSportsGeek has you covered. NFL consensus picks and public bets info is a must-have tool for any true NFL betting fan who is looking to win or cover the spread each week of the season. ActionRush.com provides NFL public betting trends on the games each night courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, FanDuel and William Hill. NFL football is by far the most bet upon sport in the United States each year, and the 2020-21 season will be no different. Betting on the Super Bowl routinely attracts more wagers than any other single event annually and follows three weeks of NFL playoff betting action. Our legal NFL betting guide is intended to assist prospective football bettors in the USA and around the world, and help.
How to read Super Bowl 55 Odds
The Kansas City Chiefs wil meet the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl 55 from Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida on Feb. 7, 2021.
The Chiefs opened as -3.5 betting favorites while the Buccaneers are 3.5 underdogs.
After early wagers came in, most operators are holding Kansas City -3 (-120).
If you were to wager on Kansas City -3, you would have to lay 5/6 odds (Bet $120 to win $100) instead of your normal 10/11 juice (Bet $110 to win $100).
The return on Tampa Bay would be even-money (1/1) and a $100 wager would return $100.
The total or over-under on Super Bowl 55 is hovering between 56 and 57 points.
How to read NFL Las Vegas Odds
The point-spread was developed to provide a balance for both teams involved in a contest to entice bettors to potentially back the weaker team and receive points. The two squads in a game are listed with a title, either a favorite or an underdog. The favorite is usually the perceived better team in the game, as backing them means giving up several points.
The favorite is always listed with a minus (-) sign before the point-spread while the underdog is labeled with a plus (+) label.
Ex. Favorite -10, Underdog +10
On the VegasInsider.com odds page, there is another number associated with the favorite and its listed as -10. This number is simply defined as “vig” or what many in the sports betting industry call vigorish. Another common term is called “juice” and it’s technically the price the bettor has to pay on a straight wager.
Ex. Bet $110 to win $100 (10% juice)
Ex. Bet $100 to win $90.91 (10% juice)
It's not uncommon to see other values posted other than -10. Examples seen on the NFL Vegas Odds pages could include -08, -12, -15 and -20. The -10 price is the most common value in the industry while many books offer reduced 'juice odds' and that would fall into the -08 category.
The lower-juice sportsbooks are normally found outside of the state Nevada. If you are in a state where sports betting is legal, please check out our online sportsbook directory to find the best and most secure places to make NFL bets.
Another number that’s posted on the NFL Las Vegas is the total or ‘over/under’ for the specific matchup. If the favorite is designated as the home team, then the total will be listed above and vice versa if the visitors are favorites.
All of the above numbers are listed next to the teams, and before each matchup is a Rotation number. The NFL Las Vegas Odds are listed in order of rotation and those numbers are generated and produced by the sportsbooks. Above each matchup and rotation is the Time of the game, which is subject to change. All game times are Eastern Standard Time.
NFL Open Line
One of the best features on the NFL Vegas Odds is the Open Line. This numbers consists of the first betting line received from one of our Las Vegas or Global Sportsbooks. The opening line varies depending on the sportsbook but it provides a clear-cut rating that the oddsmakers use. If you’re betting on the NFL or any other sport, it’s a great idea to view the open line first.
VI Consensus NFL Line
The VegasInsider.com Consensus NFL Line is just as important as the Open Line and also a key resource on odds platform. The Consensus column could be called a “Median Line” since it shows the most consistent number provided by the sportsbooks on VegasInsider.com. The consensus line will be the same as the open line but once the wagers start coming in, this number is often different than the openers.
How do I bet on the Super Bowl?
We know that you can bet on the Super Bowl and all of NFL Futures or bet on the NFL Draft at any time of the year, but what’s the process? The future wager or the “Odds to Win” bet on the Super Bowl is correctly selecting a team to win an event that takes place at a later time. A bettor will have his wagered money tied up until there is an outcome and bettors will receive fixed odds when they place the wager. In the case of the Super Bowl, you’re not a winner or loser until you see zeros on the clock in the final game.
Most sportsbooks offer different ways to read to Super Bowl Odds. In the fractional NFL Futures Odds format below, you simply take the odds and multiply by the amount wagered.
Ex. Green Bay (8/1) to win the Super Bowl
The Packers are listed as an 8/1 betting choice to win the Super Bowl. If you wager $100 on Green Bay to win the NFC and they capture the championship, then you would win $800 (8 ÷ 1 x 100). Your online betting account would then credit your account $900, which includes your win and stake ($100).
The American Format would see Green Bay listed at +800 and for the Decimal Format, the Packers would be 9.00.
Nfl Betting Help
If you are in a state where online betting is legal, we encourage you to check out our sportsbook directory to find the most trustworthy and reputable sites and mobile apps to place your Super Bowl bets.
Data can help bettors build more accurate predictive models and ultimately make more informed decisions when it comes to placing a bet. However, with so much information to process, the basic principles of betting can sometimes be neglected. What is the simple handicap method and how can it help bettors? Read on to find out.
A common problem with betting on the NFL
I was sitting at a bar discussing a challenge I was trying to overcome in the workplace with a friend. I was having a difficult time articulating the extent of the problem and was growing frustrated.
That night in Toronto with its checkerboard floors, I picked up an extra menu and dropped it on our table. In a last-ditch effort to explain my problem, I finished a drink and smacked the glass upside down on the menu. The rim of the glass made a circle around one of the many menu options.
'This is the problem!' I exclaimed.
'To be successful, I need to be able to see the edges of the menu so I can find the best option within it. However, I continuously get stuck looking only at the item isolated inside the rim of the glass.'
As I continued to explain my tendency to get locked in one option, immediately I started to think about NFL betting. Each week there is a big menu of games, and I struggled for years getting outside the 'rim' of the glass. I lived through the issue that many deal with week by week.
When I first started betting on the league in my early teens, I approached the markets from a fan perspective. I followed my beloved New York Jets each week, watched all of the highlight shows, weekly previews and nationally televised games. I used injuries and performance estimation to make wagers.
When the narrative for a game comes from within, the data and statistics on top become much easier to comprehend and prioritise.
Some years later as I started working in the industry, I began to rely heavily on data. Things like DVOA, H2H efficiency percentages, yards per play, success rates and power ratings became mainstays in my vocabulary and thought process.
After a decade of betting on the NFL, I realised, despite watching hours of football each week I was retaining very little of what I saw. I was speaking a different language of numbers and stats, but I had so little comprehension of team performance that I started mentally blocking out games in advance if I anticipated a poor fit statistically.
All of a sudden a sixteen game schedule each week diminished into two or three - which then turned into one potential wager. I watched each week as easy bets cashed in that I did not give the time of day during the week.
The benefits of a simplified approach
After a horrendous season betting football two years ago, I hit the reset button and started approaching games using, 'the simple handicap method' before looking to data and information to validate my position.
The simple handicap process is carried out by breaking each game down to answer four questions:
- Team A will try to...
- Team B will try to...
- Team A will have success if...
- Team B will have success if...
Nfl Betting Lines
It sounds elementary, but it is challenging to do. These four questions are tough to answer because they require ownership and accountability.
Building up a case to back a team creates strength and confirmation bias. Stripping down a case to back a team exposes vulnerability and poor personal judgement.At the most basic level - if honest - betting positions take on a very different light.
Don’t trust others to find you an edge
It is easy to get caught up with the overwhelming common narrative and lose focus of the big picture in the NFL. Many bettors become reliant on others to provide information and lose the ability to make an accurate judgement on their own and see the league as a whole.
One person reiterates the same information and much like the telephone game; it trickles throughout the industry bettor by bettor. Without a solid foundation of knowledge, it is impossible to remain neutral, evaluate both sides and judge the validity of market movement.
Las Vegas Nfl Odds
The four questions in the simple handicap method demand that both sides of the equation get acknowledged. It prevents mental anchoring and compounds week by week to create an understanding of the entire league. It forces those that practice it to look at the big picture.
My intent of this article is not to disregard the use of data and statistics - doing so would be foolish. I write this to encourage all reading to take a few steps back. When the narrative for a game comes from within, the data and statistics on top become much easier to comprehend and prioritise.
If anyone reading this has the humility to follow the simple handicap method, I guarantee the immediate benefit will be a new found ability to judge the betting market which in turn will identify new betting opportunities.
Handicap betting video explainer
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Found this article useful? Why not check out our videos that details how Handicap betting works.
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